Ian Morrison, Internationally known Futurist, Future of Healthcare and the Changing Business Environment and author, Health Care in the New Millennium: Vision, Values, and Leadership The Second Curve and Future Tense: The Business Realities of the Next Ten Years
Every health system in the world is a compromise. They all have flaws. The US has the worst, possibly because we spend twice as much on healthcare than any other nation. Why the difference? The fallacy of excellence – we have great hospitals and technology, but lack in other areas. Can we fix it? Culture is part of the problem. Policy management and the payment system are part of what the problem is in American system.
The average American family cannot afford the average cost of healthcare. The reform to change this is now in jeopardy due to the election of Sen. Brown in Massachusetts. If people are required to buy healthcare, they will be those who cheat the system. The problem with reform is with the stakeholders, most who are onboard with the compromise. Who does the public blame for the problems in the healthcare system? The answers are Pharma and Health insurance.
Extreme right and left feelings have killed reform. Total costs will rise at a slower rate because no coverage expansion subsidized by the government. Rates are going up, no matter what, by 8%. This is without healthcare reform. Could it switch either way? This will result in small businesses getting out priced, just like it has been over the past few decades. There’s no way to balance a budget with a country which has no taxes. The people with the best health plans in America are teachers and firefighters….and those at Goldman Sachs.
Where are we headed? If we stay where we are, generic substitution for drugs will increase. In the 25% of people who are taking injectibles, they don’t take the right amount of medicine due to the current cost. What does this mean for Pharma? Coverage, in Obama’s current plan, would be expanded to cover more drugs. Cost shifting will continue, and it will result in individuals using more generics.
Pharma will have to change the way it does business over the next few years. Value will also have to be demonstrated to the customer at the end.
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